College Football Dynasties: 2005-07

Posted by exposrip in College Football on 06 30th, 2008 | no responses

Fantasy College Blitz

By Vince Mullins

Time again to review who have been the best offenses over the last three years - we have found that many schools or even coordinators have an amazing track record of producing numbers every year and that should help narrow your focus on Draft Day.

This study uses team stats, not individual stats so this is not a tool to use by itself, you still need to do your depth chart research to layer upon this - for instance Navy led the nation the last three years in yards rushing but they usually split carries among four players. Expect that I will do that for our Preseason Owner Manual, but for now I wanted to put the stats on the site. As a quick back story, I have gone back to 2000 and ranked each college football offense on three variables:

  • Yards per play (YPP) to gauge big-play ability
  • Yards per game (YPG) since yards equal fantasy points
  • Touchdowns per game (TDG) since we shouldn’t care so much about kicker points and defensive TDs.

The final step involves adding up those ranks to achieve a raw score (lower the better), then ranking the resulting raw score. For teams that get a lot of yards but do not score enough, the resulting ranks will balance out and penalize inefficient offenses.

While that gives solid insight to an individual year, I wanted to look at a longer trend to smooth for outlier years (whether UCLA 2005 to the upside or Notre Dame’s Gabriel-like fall from grace last year). Remember the goal here is to increase your probability of predicting excellent stats, and if you have any children or work with youths you know it is hard enough to predict their behavior in life let alone on a football field in front of 25,000 or 100,000 fans.

So why not look at what schools have the best track record, not just one big year? I specifically used three years since that is the usual cycle of an impact player’s career (and lately a coach also). Either a freshman sits then has three years of starting, or comes in as a freshman and heads off to the NFL early. Or Bobby Petrino gets a wild hair and leaves in three years or less.

I added a momentum indicator this year - rather than my usual preference for equal weighting each year’s performance (DYN score), recent years received extra weight in a new calculation (DYNW). 2007 rank was given triple weight, 2006 double weight, and 2005 remained as is.

Stay tuned for some additional observations on this and many other items in the 2008 Owner’s Manual.

Dynasty Study, 2005-7

05-07 DYN RANK Fantasy College Blitz.com Dynasty Study 05-07 DYNW RANK RANK DIFF 05-07 DYN RAW [2] 05-07 DYN WEIGHTED [3] 2005 DYN RANK [4] 2006 DYN RANK 2007 DYN Rank
1 Texas Tech 2 -1 14 27 4 7 3
2 Hawaii 1 1 17 20 15 1 1
2 Louisville 3 -1 17 42 3 3 11
4 Texas 6 -2 30 71 2 15 13
5 Boise St. 5 0 36 61 21 5 10
6 West Virginia 4 2 45 59 37 2 6
7 Houston 7 0 47 76 30 5 12
8 Southern California 14 -6 54 138 1 22 31
9 Navy 13 -4 60 126 12 30 18
10 Tulsa 9 1 61 92 32 27 2
10 Oregon 11 -1 61 116 23 21 17
12 California 18 -6 62 148 13 12 37
13 Missouri 10 3 65 98 40 17 8
14 Florida 8 6 70 91 53 13 4
15 LSU 12 3 74 125 45 7 22
15 Nevada 16 -1 74 144 20 38 16
17 Purdue 20 -3 82 159 34 19 29
18 Ohio St. 25 -7 83 182 27 13 43
19 Washington St. 27 -8 88 209 8 39 41
20 UTEP 23 -3 89 172 31 33 25
21 Minnesota 32 -11 94 239 7 29 58
22 Michigan St. 29 -7 95 222 6 51 38
23 Central Mich. 21 2 96 161 52 23 21
24 Arkansas 17 7 100 146 68 18 14
24 Fresno St. 28 -4 100 209 17 57 26
26 Brigham Young 37 -11 52 114 19 4 29
27 Texas A&M 35 -8 105 253 18 26 61
28 Rutgers 26 2 107 192 42 45 20
29 Arizona St. 38 -9 109 273 5 44 60
30 Oklahoma 19 11 110 156 71 32 7
31 Oklahoma St. 15 16 111 139 92 10 9
32 Toledo 31 1 114 236 14 78 22
33 Wisconsin 34 -1 115 243 33 36 46
34 Clemson 30 4 118 230 57 10 51
35 Nebraska 22 13 124 169 94 15 15
36 Kansas 24 12 126 173 84 37 5
37 UCF 36 1 139 265 46 60 33
38 Air Force 41 -3 141 282 36 69 36
39 Utah 55 -16 142 339 22 43 77
40 Memphis 39 1 143 274 47 61 35
41 Penn St. 49 -8 143 318 24 63 56
42 Bowling Green 50 -8 147 318 25 73 49
43 TCU 53 -10 147 328 43 27 77
44 Boston College 44 0 152 295 54 53 45
45 Notre Dame 69 -24 152 413 9 25 118
46 Georgia 54 -8 156 328 38 64 54
47 Northern Ill. 67 -20 157 401 11 48 98
48 Kentucky 33 15 158 240 100 34 24
49 Northwestern 61 -12 164 364 16 96 52
50 New Mexico St. 43 7 165 292 97 9 59
51 South Fla. 45 6 168 297 79 49 40
51 East Caro. 52 -1 168 326 56 66 46
51 Michigan 57 -6 168 341 62 39 67
54 Tennessee 42 12 171 286 98 31 42
54 South Carolina 55 -1 171 339 75 24 72
56 Marshall 47 9 175 305 93 34 48
57 Ball St. 40 17 177 279 103 46 28
57 Kansas St. 48 9 177 313 73 72 32
59 Iowa 78 -19 179 439 28 42 109
60 Oregon St. 65 -5 183 387 58 46 79
61 Auburn 76 -15 184 433 29 61 94
62 La.-Lafayette 64 -2 188 384 48 84 56
62 Florida St. 68 -6 188 410 50 54 84
64 Rice 57 7 189 341 87 52 50
65 Southern Miss. 63 2 189 376 66 59 64
66 Cincinnati 46 20 190 298 101 70 19
66 Illinois 51 15 190 325 89 67 34
68 UCLA 87 -19 195 485 10 80 105
69 Western Mich. 69 0 196 413 44 87 65
70 Indiana 62 8 199 375 76 70 53
71 Washington 66 5 202 389 70 77 55
72 Pittsburgh 74 -2 202 426 80 20 102
72 Vanderbilt 81 -9 202 454 51 50 101
74 Southern Methodist 60 14 205 346 107 55 43
75 Virginia Tech 83 -8 208 459 41 83 84
76 San Jose St. 76 0 210 433 78 41 91
77 La.-Monroe 73 4 211 415 81 56 74
77 Colorado St. 81 -4 211 454 39 101 71
79 Troy 59 20 213 343 110 76 27
80 New Mexico 84 -4 215 462 49 85 81
81 Georgia Tech 71 10 217 414 90 57 70
82 Alabama 80 2 222 450 74 68 80
82 Miami (Ohio) 92 -10 222 501 35 95 92
84 Louisiana Tech 85 -1 224 480 64 64 96
85 UAB 98 -13 226 532 26 94 106
86 Tulane 75 11 228 427 91 75 62
87 Arkansas St. 88 -1 233 486 55 103 75
87 Maryland 89 -2 233 493 63 80 90
89 San Diego St. 86 3 236 481 59 109 68
90 Connecticut 90 0 249 495 86 80 83
90 Miami (Fla.) 101 -11 249 540 61 85 103
92 Buffalo 106 -14 302 570 115 106 81
93 Arizona 91 2 252 498 72 114 66
94 Wake Forest 95 -1 254 519 77 89 88
95 Colorado 93 2 260 510 83 104 73
96 Akron 104 -8 262 564 67 88 107
97 Fla. Atlantic 79 18 263 446 119 105 39
97 Wyoming 107 -10 263 577 60 92 111
99 Baylor 99 0 270 533 102 73 95
100 Iowa St. 109 -9 271 585 69 90 112
101 Ohio 94 7 274 513 104 101 69
102 Middle Tenn. St. 96 6 274 519 105 93 76
103 Kent St. 95 8 276 531 109 79 88
104 Virginia 110 -6 277 588 65 113 99
105 Eastern Mich. 102 3 278 558 82 112 84
105 Idaho 103 2 278 561 88 97 93
107 UNLV 105 2 284 569 96 91 97
108 North Texas 100 8 292 534 113 116 63
109 North Carolina St. 112 -3 299 607 95 100 104
110 Mississippi 108 2 306 584 112 110 84
111 North Carolina 111 0 306 604 108 98 100
112 Stanford 114 -2 314 656 85 116 113
113 Mississippi St. 113 0 317 630 111 99 107
114 Utah St. 115 -1 323 656 99 115 109
115 Army 116 -1 330 671 106 107 117
116 Duke 117 -1 336 672 114 108 114
117 Syracuse 118 -1 342 683 116 111 115
118 Temple 119 -1 349 697 117 116 116
119 FIU 120 -1 354 708 119 116



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