College Football Dynasties: 2005-07

Fantasy College Blitz

By Vince Mullins

Time again to review who have been the best offenses over the last three years – we have found that many schools or even coordinators have an amazing track record of producing numbers every year and that should help narrow your focus on Draft Day.

This study uses team stats, not individual stats so this is not a tool to use by itself, you still need to do your depth chart research to layer upon this – for instance Navy led the nation the last three years in yards rushing but they usually split carries among four players. Expect that I will do that for our Preseason Owner Manual, but for now I wanted to put the stats on the site. As a quick back story, I have gone back to 2000 and ranked each college football offense on three variables:

• Yards per play (YPP) to gauge big-play ability
• Yards per game (YPG) since yards equal fantasy points
• Touchdowns per game (TDG) since we shouldn’t care so much about kicker points and defensive TDs.

The final step involves adding up those ranks to achieve a raw score (lower the better), then ranking the resulting raw score. For teams that get a lot of yards but do not score enough, the resulting ranks will balance out and penalize inefficient offenses.

While that gives solid insight to an individual year, I wanted to look at a longer trend to smooth for outlier years (whether UCLA 2005 to the upside or Notre Dame’s Gabriel-like fall from grace last year). Remember the goal here is to increase your probability of predicting excellent stats, and if you have any children or work with youths you know it is hard enough to predict their behavior in life let alone on a football field in front of 25,000 or 100,000 fans.

So why not look at what schools have the best track record, not just one big year? I specifically used three years since that is the usual cycle of an impact player’s career (and lately a coach also). Either a freshman sits then has three years of starting, or comes in as a freshman and heads off to the NFL early. Or Bobby Petrino gets a wild hair and leaves in three years or less.

I added a momentum indicator this year – rather than my usual preference for equal weighting each year’s performance (DYN score), recent years received extra weight in a new calculation (DYNW). 2007 rank was given triple weight, 2006 double weight, and 2005 remained as is.

Stay tuned for some additional observations on this and many other items in the 2008 Owner’s Manual.

Dynasty Study, 2005-7

05-07 DYN RANK	Fantasy College Blitz.com Dynasty Study	05-07 DYNW RANK	RANK DIFF	05-07 DYN RAW [2]	05-07 DYN WEIGHTED [3]	2005 DYN RANK [4]	2006 DYN RANK	2007 DYN Rank
1	Texas Tech	2	-1	14	27	4	7	3
2	Hawaii	1	1	17	20	15	1	1
2	Louisville	3	-1	17	42	3	3	11
4	Texas	6	-2	30	71	2	15	13
5	Boise St.	5	0	36	61	21	5	10
6	West Virginia	4	2	45	59	37	2	6
7	Houston	7	0	47	76	30	5	12
8	Southern California	14	-6	54	138	1	22	31
9	Navy	13	-4	60	126	12	30	18
10	Tulsa	9	1	61	92	32	27	2
10	Oregon	11	-1	61	116	23	21	17
12	California	18	-6	62	148	13	12	37
13	Missouri	10	3	65	98	40	17	8
14	Florida	8	6	70	91	53	13	4
15	LSU	12	3	74	125	45	7	22
15	Nevada	16	-1	74	144	20	38	16
17	Purdue	20	-3	82	159	34	19	29
18	Ohio St.	25	-7	83	182	27	13	43
19	Washington St.	27	-8	88	209	8	39	41
20	UTEP	23	-3	89	172	31	33	25
21	Minnesota	32	-11	94	239	7	29	58
22	Michigan St.	29	-7	95	222	6	51	38
23	Central Mich.	21	2	96	161	52	23	21
24	Arkansas	17	7	100	146	68	18	14
24	Fresno St.	28	-4	100	209	17	57	26
26	Brigham Young	37	-11	52	114	19	4	29
27	Texas A&M	35	-8	105	253	18	26	61
28	Rutgers	26	2	107	192	42	45	20
29	Arizona St.	38	-9	109	273	5	44	60
30	Oklahoma	19	11	110	156	71	32	7
31	Oklahoma St.	15	16	111	139	92	10	9
32	Toledo	31	1	114	236	14	78	22
33	Wisconsin	34	-1	115	243	33	36	46
34	Clemson	30	4	118	230	57	10	51
35	Nebraska	22	13	124	169	94	15	15
36	Kansas	24	12	126	173	84	37	5
37	UCF	36	1	139	265	46	60	33
38	Air Force	41	-3	141	282	36	69	36
39	Utah	55	-16	142	339	22	43	77
40	Memphis	39	1	143	274	47	61	35
41	Penn St.	49	-8	143	318	24	63	56
42	Bowling Green	50	-8	147	318	25	73	49
43	TCU	53	-10	147	328	43	27	77
44	Boston College	44	0	152	295	54	53	45
45	Notre Dame	69	-24	152	413	9	25	118
46	Georgia	54	-8	156	328	38	64	54
47	Northern Ill.	67	-20	157	401	11	48	98
48	Kentucky	33	15	158	240	100	34	24
49	Northwestern	61	-12	164	364	16	96	52
50	New Mexico St.	43	7	165	292	97	9	59
51	South Fla.	45	6	168	297	79	49	40
51	East Caro.	52	-1	168	326	56	66	46
51	Michigan	57	-6	168	341	62	39	67
54	Tennessee	42	12	171	286	98	31	42
54	South Carolina	55	-1	171	339	75	24	72
56	Marshall	47	9	175	305	93	34	48
57	Ball St.	40	17	177	279	103	46	28
57	Kansas St.	48	9	177	313	73	72	32
59	Iowa	78	-19	179	439	28	42	109
60	Oregon St.	65	-5	183	387	58	46	79
61	Auburn	76	-15	184	433	29	61	94
62	La.-Lafayette	64	-2	188	384	48	84	56
62	Florida St.	68	-6	188	410	50	54	84
64	Rice	57	7	189	341	87	52	50
65	Southern Miss.	63	2	189	376	66	59	64
66	Cincinnati	46	20	190	298	101	70	19
66	Illinois	51	15	190	325	89	67	34
68	UCLA	87	-19	195	485	10	80	105
69	Western Mich.	69	0	196	413	44	87	65
70	Indiana	62	8	199	375	76	70	53
71	Washington	66	5	202	389	70	77	55
72	Pittsburgh	74	-2	202	426	80	20	102
72	Vanderbilt	81	-9	202	454	51	50	101
74	Southern Methodist	60	14	205	346	107	55	43
75	Virginia Tech	83	-8	208	459	41	83	84
76	San Jose St.	76	0	210	433	78	41	91
77	La.-Monroe	73	4	211	415	81	56	74
77	Colorado St.	81	-4	211	454	39	101	71
79	Troy	59	20	213	343	110	76	27
80	New Mexico	84	-4	215	462	49	85	81
81	Georgia Tech	71	10	217	414	90	57	70
82	Alabama	80	2	222	450	74	68	80
82	Miami (Ohio)	92	-10	222	501	35	95	92
84	Louisiana Tech	85	-1	224	480	64	64	96
85	UAB	98	-13	226	532	26	94	106
86	Tulane	75	11	228	427	91	75	62
87	Arkansas St.	88	-1	233	486	55	103	75
87	Maryland	89	-2	233	493	63	80	90
89	San Diego St.	86	3	236	481	59	109	68
90	Connecticut	90	0	249	495	86	80	83
90	Miami (Fla.)	101	-11	249	540	61	85	103
92	Buffalo	106	-14	302	570	115	106	81
93	Arizona	91	2	252	498	72	114	66
94	Wake Forest	95	-1	254	519	77	89	88
95	Colorado	93	2	260	510	83	104	73
96	Akron	104	-8	262	564	67	88	107
97	Fla. Atlantic	79	18	263	446	119	105	39
97	Wyoming	107	-10	263	577	60	92	111
99	Baylor	99	0	270	533	102	73	95
100	Iowa St.	109	-9	271	585	69	90	112
101	Ohio	94	7	274	513	104	101	69
102	Middle Tenn. St.	96	6	274	519	105	93	76
103	Kent St.	95	8	276	531	109	79	88
104	Virginia	110	-6	277	588	65	113	99
105	Eastern Mich.	102	3	278	558	82	112	84
105	Idaho	103	2	278	561	88	97	93
107	UNLV	105	2	284	569	96	91	97
108	North Texas	100	8	292	534	113	116	63
109	North Carolina St.	112	-3	299	607	95	100	104
110	Mississippi	108	2	306	584	112	110	84
111	North Carolina	111	0	306	604	108	98	100
112	Stanford	114	-2	314	656	85	116	113
113	Mississippi St.	113	0	317	630	111	99	107
114	Utah St.	115	-1	323	656	99	115	109
115	Army	116	-1	330	671	106	107	117
116	Duke	117	-1	336	672	114	108	114
117	Syracuse	118	-1	342	683	116	111	115
118	Temple	119	-1	349	697	117	116	116
119	FIU	120	-1	354	708	119	116