NFL
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RJ's NFL Picks, Week Seven |
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Written by RJ Elliot
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Monday, 22 October 2007 |
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I went 10-3 last week. That puts me at 56-33 for the season. For a comparison, check out the "experts" over at ESPN. Here are my picks for the NFL's Week Seven: Sunday, October 21st, 2007 Arizona (3-3) at Washington (3-2) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Redskins by 8½) Arizona lost at home to Carolina last week. They also lost QB Kurt Warner to an elbow injury. If Warner is unable to play this Sunday (which seems likely), the Cardinals will start either Tim Rattay or the newly-signed Tim Hasselbeck. And neither of those options looks terribly promising. Washington lost a close one at Green Bay last week. They've given up the fewest points in the NFC. I expect a rather boring, low-scoring game. RJ's Pick - REDSKINS BY 5 Atlanta (1-5) at New Orleans (1-4) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Saints by 9) Last week, Atlanta got whipped at home by the Giants on MNF. QB Joey Harrington has now officially been benched in favor of Byron Leftwich, so we can safely place him on suicide watch. (The over/under is 14½ Xanax.) The Saints beat the Seahawks in Seattle on SNF last week to earn their first victory of the season. QB Drew Brees had his best game of the year by far, so it's possible he's back to his 2006 form. New Orleans should pull it off, but I wouldn't be surprised by a close one. RJ's Pick - SAINTS BY 4 Baltimore (4-2) at Buffalo (1-4) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Ravens by 3) Baltimore crushed the Rams last week, 22-3. The Ravens defense looked sub-par earlier in the season, but they've given up just 10 points in the last two games. And it's a good thing, because their offense has only scored a single touchdown in those two contests (both wins). QB Steve McNair is still injured, so Kyle Boller will start again this week. The Bills had a bye last week. They have scored the second-fewest points in the league. Trent Edwards will start at QB again this week. I would be surprised to see more than 30 total points scored in this one. RJ's Pick - RAVENS BY 6 New England (6-0) at Miami (0-6) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Patriots by 16½) New England beat the previously-undefeated Cowboys in Dallas last week. QB Tom Brady continues to amaze. He threw five TDs against the Cowboys, which puts him at 21 through six games. He has just 2 INTs all season, and his quarterback rating is a staggering 128.9. If Brady stays healthy, this team, quite simply, looks unbeatable. The Miami Dolphins lost to the Browns last week, and remain winless in 2007. Their defense continues to look horrible, giving up 41 points last week, for a total of 182 on the season, the second-most in the NFL. You aren't going to win many games when your defense allows over thirty points per game. And it doesn't help matters any when your starting quarterback recently had about 15 IQ points kicked out of his left ear by a defensive tackle ... and your backup quarterback is named Cleo Lemon. This one is gonna be a slaughter. RJ's Pick - PATRIOTS BY 28 San Francisco (2-3) at New York Giants (4-2) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Giants by 9) San Francisco had a bye last week. They haven't won a game since Week Two, and they've scored the fewest points in the league. QB Alex Smith is still injured, so Trent Dilfer will start again this week. The Giants beat up on the Falcons last week on MNF. They haven't lost a game since Week Two. WR Plaxico Burress has 8 TDs on the season, with at least one in each game. This one shouldn't be particularly close. RJ's Pick - GIANTS BY 15 Tampa Bay (4-2) at Detroit (3-2) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Lions by 2) Tampa Bay slipped past Tennessee last week, 13-10. Of all the teams that have played six games so far, the Buccaneers have given up the fewest points. And QB Jeff Garcia hasn't thrown a pick all season. If Tampa Bay had any kind of running game, they'd be truly dangerous. But with RB Cadillac Williams out for the year, and RB Michael Pittman out for at least several more weeks, the Buccaneers will be forced to rely on Earnest Graham and the newly-acquired Michael Bennett at that position. Detroit had a bye last week. They've been blown out in two of their last three games. The Lions are pretty healthy coming off their bye week, and rookie WR Calvin Johnson is said to be almost fully recovered from the back injury he suffered in Week Three. This is a difficult game to pick, but Detroit is 2-0 at home and the Buccaneers are 1-2 on the road, so I'll go with the home team (but barely). RJ's Pick - LIONS BY 1 Tennessee (3-2) at Houston (3-3) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Titans by 1½) Tennessee lost last week at Tampa Bay. QB Vince Young left that game with a leg injury, but he could be healthy enough to start this week. If not, Kerry Collins will be the starter at quarterback. RB Chris Brown is also injured, and might miss Sunday's game. The Houston Texans lost badly last week in Jacksonville. At 3-3, they are in last place in the AFC South; with that record, they'd be tied for first place in either the AFC West or the NFC West. QB Matt Schaub hasn't thrown a TD since Week Four. This isn't an easy game to pick; Tennessee has a superior defense, but Houston has the better offense. Both teams have some key injuries. I'll have to go with the home team. RJ's Pick - TEXANS BY 3 Kansas City (3-3) at Oakland (2-3) - 4:05 pm (Sheridan's Line: Raiders by 3) Kansas City beat the Bengals last week. Of teams that have played six games, they've scored the third-fewest points. RB Priest Holmes looks likely to play in his first game of the season this week. The Raiders lost to San Diego last week, 28-14. RB LaMont Jordan is banged up a bit, and hasn't had a big game since Week Three. QB Daunte Culpepper looked pretty bad last week against the Chargers. I'm going with the upset here. RJ's Pick - CHIEFS BY 2 New York Jets (1-5) at Cincinnati (1-4) - 4:05 pm (Sheridan's Line: Bengals by 6) The Jets lost at home to the Eagles last week. They've now lost three games in a row. Unless QB Chad Pennington can put up some huge numbers and get a win this week against the Bengals, his starting job is likely gone. Cincinnati lost last week at Kansas City. They haven't won a game since Week One. Neither of these teams have a good defense, but the Bengals have a superior offense. Also, the Jets are winless on the road, while Cincinnati is .500 at home. Therefore, I'll go with the Bengals in what I expect will be a high-scoring game. RJ's Pick - BENGALS BY 8 Chicago (2-4) at Philadelphia (2-3) - 4:15 pm (Sheridan's Line: Eagles by 5½) Chicago lost at home to Minnesota last week. The Bears have allowed 149 points so far this season, third-most in the NFC. Chicago's best offensive weapon is their return specialist, Devin Hester. QB Brian Griese is throwing too many INTs. How long will it be before Bears fans start chanting "We Want Rex!!!"? Philadelphia won on the road against the Jets last week. They've given up the second-fewest points in the NFC. As long as they remember to punt the ball out of bounds, Philadelphia should be able to improve to .500 with a win here. RJ's Pick - EAGLES BY 7 Minnesota (2-3) at Dallas (5-1) - 4:15 pm (Sheridan's Line: Dallas by 9½) The Vikings won in Chicago last week. Rookie RB Adrian Peterson broke all kinds of records with his incredible performance in that game. He's averaging 6.3 yards per carry and over 120 yards per game. The Vikings are lucky they have such a strong running game, because their Tarvaris Jackson-led passing attack is a joke. And not just any kind of joke, mind you, but a particularly cruel one, utterly bereft of even a modicum of humor, like telling your best friend that you just saw his mom by the side of the road, dead from a horrible accident involving a cement-mixer and a gasoline tanker truck, consoling him for a few moments, and then telling him that you were just kidding, actually it was his dad. (I'll pause while you re-read all that.) The Cowboys lost at home to the Patriots last week. They've scored the most points in the NFC. Unfortunately, they tend to give up a lot of points as well. This game should be a high-scoring affair, and I expect Dallas to come away with the win. RJ's Pick - COWBOYS BY 7 Saint Louis (0-6) at Seattle (3-3) - 4:15 pm (Sheridan's Line: Seahawks by 9) The Rams lost last week, like they do every week. QB Gus Frerotte lost a fumble, threw five picks, and had zero TDs in the embarrassing 22-3 loss at Baltimore. Suddenly, Marc Bulger is "healthy" again, and will start under center this week. Seattle got beat at home by the Saints on SNF last week. They've now lost two in a row and have dropped to .500, yet still find themselves in a tie for first-place in the pathetic NFC West. RB Shaun Alexander is averaging under three yards per carry over his last two games. I don't expect an upset, but it could be relatively close. RJ's Pick - SEAHAWKS BY 6 Pittsburgh (4-1) at Denver (2-3) - 8:15 pm (Sheridan's Line: Steelers by 3½) The Steelers had a bye last week. They have given up the fewest points in the NFL, by far. RB Willie Parker is having a fine season, and QB Ben Roethlisberger has played well in every game except the Week Four loss to Arizona. They may not earn a first-round playoff bye, but they certainly do look postseason-bound. Denver, on the other hand, does not. The Broncos had a bye last week, but lost three games in a row before that. They haven't won since Week Two, and their two wins this year have come against Oakland (by three points, at home) and Buffalo (by one point, on a last-second field goal). RB Travis Henry is a bright spot, however, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and just shy of 100 yards per game. Pittsburgh should pick up the road win here. RJ's Pick - STEELERS BY 5 Monday, October 22nd, 2007 RJ'S GAME OF THE WEEK: Indianapolis (5-0) at Jacksonville (4-1) - 8:30 pm (Sheridan's Line: Colts by 3) The Colts had a bye last week. WR Marvin Harrison may not be ready to play in this MNF matchup, as he is still hobbled by a knee injury. The running back duo of Joseph Addai and Kenton Keith are going to need a big game against the solid run defense of Jacksonville. The Jaguars beat up on Houston last week, 37-17. They have given up the second-fewest points in the NFL. QB David Garrard has not thrown a single INT this season. The Colts are still undefeated, but they have looked quite beatable a couple times this year, and both near-losses were on the road. I'm picking the upset. RJ's Pick - JAGUARS BY 3 [Bye Week Teams: Carolina (4-2), Cleveland (3-3), Green Bay (5-1), San Diego (3-3)] Recap RJ's Week Six Picks: WASHINGTON, NEW ORLEANS, BALTIMORE, NEW ENGLAND, NEW YORK GIANTS, DETROIT, HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA, DALLAS, SEATTLE, PITTSBURGH, JACKSONVILLE - I picked TEN Home teams and FOUR Away teams - I picked ELEVEN Favorites and THREE Underdogs (If you're interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan's Odds and ESPN's NFL "Expert" Picks.) | | No comments for this item |
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Written by RJ Elliot
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Monday, 15 October 2007 |
I went 9-5 last week. That puts me at 46-30 for the season. For a comparison, check out the "experts" over at ESPN.
Here are my picks for the NFL's Week Six:
Sunday, October 14th, 2007
Cincinnati (1-3) at Kansas City (2-3) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Bengals by 3)
Cincinnati had a bye last week. RB Rudi Johnson still may not be healed enough to play this week, however. The Bengals have given up 129 points, seventh most in the NFL despite having played one game less than most of the league. The Chiefs lost at home to Jacksonville in Week Five. QB Damon Huard was injured in the 4th quarter of that game, but head coach Herm "Don't Call Me Herman" Edwards says he's fine to start this week. Kansas City's 63 points scored after five games is the worst in the AFC. RB Larry Johnson should have a big game, giving the Chiefs a narrow edge.
RJ's Pick - KANSAS CITY BY 1
Houston (3-2) at Jacksonville (3-1) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Jaguars by 6½)
Houston barely won at home against the hapless Dolphins last week; a last-second 57-yard field goal provided the margin of victory. RB Ahman Green should be back in the lineup this week. Jacksonville whipped Kansas City last week, 17-7, in a game that would have been a shutout if not for a meaningless last-second touchdown by the Chiefs. QB David Garrard has 4 TDs and 0 INTs through four games, and a quarterback rating of 105.4. The Jaguars have given up just 41 points, fewest in the NFL. I don't see a lot of points being scored in this one.
RJ's Pick - JACKSONVILLE BY 4
Miami (0-5) at Cleveland (2-3) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Browns by 5)
The Dolphins lost last week to Houston. They also lost QB Trent Green to injury, when he attempted to block a 305-pound defensive tackle with his head. It is unsure when the 37-year old Green will return, if ever. Cleo Lemon will start this week for Miami, although John Beck could possibly make an appearance if/when Lemon struggles. Cleveland got beat by the Patriots last week, as everyone expected they would. Both WR Joe Jurevicius and RB Jamal Lewis might miss this week's game due to injury, but the Browns should win anyway.
RJ's Pick - CLEVELAND by 9
Minnesota (1-3) at Chicago (2-3) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Bears by 5)
The Vikings had a bye last week. It is unknown whether it will be Tarvaris Jackson or Kelly Holcomb starting at QB this week. The Bears beat the Packers in Green Bay last week on SNF. QB Brian Griese looked decent, throwing for 214 yards, 2 TDs, and only 1 INT. But the running game averaged less than three yards per carry. This should be another low-scoring contest.
RJ's Pick - CHICAGO BY 3
Philadelphia (1-3) at New York Jets (1-4) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Eagles by 3)
The Philadelphia Phillies Eagles took last week off. (Heh.) RB Brian Westbrook should be back in action this week. This will be the second game in row the Eagles have played at "The Meadowlands" (they played, and lost to, the Giants in Week Four). The Jets lost their last game to the Giants as well, 35-24 in Week Five. QB Chad Pennington has thrown 5 INTs in the last two weeks, and could be replaced by Kellen Clemens unless his performance improves soon. Like, say, by halftime this Sunday. This is a tough game to predict, because the Eagles are capable of scoring anywhere from 3 to 56 points.
RJ's Pick - PHILADELPHIA BY 5
St. Louis (0-5) at Baltimore (3-2) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Ravens by 9½)
The Rams lost at home to the Cardinals last week. QB Gus Frerotte did not play particularly well starting for the injured Marc Bulger. Then again, Marc Bulger hadn't been playing very well either. RB Steven Jackson will miss his third consecutive game this week, WR Isaac Bruce will miss his second, and return specialist Dante' Hall is likely out for at least two games due to an ankle injury he suffered last week. Oh, and the majority of the starters on the offensive line are still on life-support. But it's not just the offense that's a problem for Saint Louis; their defense has allowed the second most points in the NFC. This team could really use a bye week (but they'll have to wait until Week Nine for that). The Ravens edged San Francisco 9-7 in Week Five. TE Todd Heap should be able to play this Sunday after sitting out last week. This one could get ugly.
RJ's Pick - BALTIMORE BY 15
Tennessee (3-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Buccaneers by 3)
The Titans beat Atlanta last week. They've allowed just 59 points in four games, or 14.75 per game. But QB Vince Young is having an "I-scored-a-six-on-the-Wonderlic" kind of season so far, with just 3 TDs, 5 INTs, and a 67.2 quarterback rating (I mean, like all decent human beings, I feel a deep and abiding hatred towards Merril Hoge. But when a man's right, he's right). Tampa Bay got shredded by the Colts last week. RB Michael Pittman was injured in that game, and is likely to be out for at least six weeks. Unfortunately for the Bucs, I don't believe Earnest Graham is going to be an adequate replacement for Pittman. So it looks like Tampa Bay will be relying increasingly on the arm of the ageless Jeff Garcia. He's been superb so far, with 4 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 103.6 quarterback rating. I'll go with the Buccaneers in a low-scoring affair.
RJ's Pick - TAMPA BAY BY 6
Washington (3-1) at Green Bay (4-1) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Packers by 3)
The Redskins thrashed the Lions last week, 34-3. QB Jason Campbell got to feel what it's like to be Peyton Manning for a day, playing against an awful Lions defense. Washington has given up the fewest points in the NFC. If not for a second-half collapse against the Giants in Week Three, they'd be undefeated right now. The Packers suffered their first loss of the season last week against Chicago. But you can pretty much expect to lose when you commit five turnovers and are penalized 12 times for 93 yards. They have the second-highest scoring offense in the NFC. This should be a good, close game.
RJ's Pick - GREEN BAY BY 1
Carolina (3-2) at Arizona (3-2) - 4:05 pm (Sheridan's Line: Cardinals by 4)
Carolina beat the Saints in New Orleans last week, 16-13. Bizarrely, they are 0-2 at home and 3-0 on the road so far this season. QB David Carr was injured in the second quarter last week, but was able to return and finish the game, and is likely to start this Sunday. That's a good thing, because with Jake Delhomme out for the season, a serious injury to Carr would pretty much end Carolina's playoff hopes. (Carr's backup is rookie Matt Moore from Oregon State, who, from what I understand, is about as likely to have a successful NFL career as Stephen Hawking.) Arizona beat the Rams last week, but barely, 34-31. In four of their five games, the margin of victory/defeat has been exactly three points. Matt Leinart is done for the year with a broken collarbone, which makes Kurt Warner the full-time starting QB. If the Cardinals make the playoffs for the first time since 1998, does Ken Whisenhunt automatically get named Coach of the Year?
RJ's Pick - ARIZONA BY 7
RJ'S ABSURDLY OBVIOUS GAME OF THE WEEK: New England (5-0) at Dallas (5-0) - 4:15 pm (Sheridan's Line: Patriots by 4½)
The Patriots crushed Cleveland last week. The margins of victory in their five wins have been impressive: 24, 24, 31, 21, 17. QB Tom Brady's numbers are staggering: 16 TDs, only 2 INTs, a 74.1% completion percentage, 1,383 passing yards, and a 128.7 quarterback rating. He's only been sacked 3 times all season. (Donovan McNabb, Joey Harrington, and Jon Kitna are all averaging more sacks than that per game.) Seriously, if you don't believe that New England is the best team in professional football right now, Travis Johnson must have just kneed you in the face. The Cowboys won a wild one in Buffalo last week. QB Tony Romo had probably the worst game of his career, throwing five INTs and losing a fumble, but still Dallas found a way to win. They lead the NFC in scoring by a wide margin (the next closest team, the Packers, have scored 51 fewer points). Of course, anything is possible in the NFL, but with the way the Pats are playing right now, I just can't see them losing.
RJ's Pick - NEW ENGLAND BY 8
Oakland (2-2) at San Diego (2-3) - 4:15 pm (Sheridan's Line: Chargers by 10)
The Raiders had a bye last week. They are the only division-leading team in the NFL without a winning record. Josh McCown is still all gimped out, so Daunte Culpepper will start under center again this week. RB Dominic Rhodes has completed serving his four-game suspension for being a reckless drunk violating the NFL's substance abuse policy, so this Sunday will be his first start as a Raider. It's a good thing he's able to play, because RB LaMont Jordan has missed practice with a back injury. The Chargers buried the Broncos in Denver last week, 41-3. RB LaDainian Tomlinson had 67 yards rushing and 73 yards receiving. RB Michael Turner earned 147 yards on the ground on just 10 carries, with a TD. Expect a Chargers win, but not necessarily a blowout.
RJ's Pick - SAN DIEGO BY 7
New Orleans (0-4) at Seattle (3-2) - 8:15 pm (Sheridan's Line: Seahawks by 6½)
New Orleans lost to Carolina last week. The Saints have scored the fewest points in the NFL entering Week Six. QB Drew Brees has looked horrible this year. He's thrown 9 INTs and just 1 TD, and has a quarterback rating of 57.4, which is getting uncomfortably close to Tarvaris Jackson territory. I gotta say, it still saddens me when I think back to that time, not so long ago, when the football stadium in New Orleans was full of desperate, outraged people who had just lived through an enormous catastrophe shown live on national television. But enough about the MNF game in Week Three ... Seattle got shutout by the Steelers last week, 21-0. Veteran FB Mack Strong, who was RB Shaun Alexander's lead blocker, is done for the year [make that his career] after injuring his neck in the loss. WR Deion Branch will miss the next couple games due to a sprained foot, and WR D. J. Hackett is still out. The Seahawks should win this SNF matchup, but I expect it to be fairly close because each team's offensive woes should result in a low-scoring game.
RJ's Pick - SEATTLE BY 3
Monday, October 15th, 2007
New York Giants (3-2) at Atlanta (1-4) - 8:30 pm (Sheridan's Line: Giants by 3)
The Giants outscored the Jets last week, 35-24. They've now won three in a row. WR Plaxico Burress is gimpy, but should still be effective. The Falcons lost last week to the Titans. Offensive tackle Wayne Gandy is out for the year with a torn ACL. Joey Harrington is to remain the starting QB for Atlanta in this week's game, but how much longer will it be before head coach Bobby Petrino benches him in favor of Byron Leftwich?
RJ's Pick - NEW YORK GIANTS BY 11
[Bye Week Teams: Buffalo (1-4), Denver (2-3), Detroit (3-2), Indianapolis (5-0), Pittsburgh (4-1), San Francisco (2-3)]
Recap
RJ's Week Six Picks: KC, Jax, Cleveland, Chicago, Philly, Baltimore, TB, GB, Arizona, NE, SD, Seattle, New York Giants
- I picked ten Home teams and three Away teams
- I picked twelve Favorites and one Underdog
(If you're interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan's Odds and ESPN's NFL "Expert" Picks.)
2007 Weekly Results
Week One - 11-5
Week Two - 9-7
Week Three - 10-6
Week Four - 7-7
Week Five - 9-5 | | No comments for this item |
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RJ's NFL Picks, Week Five |
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Written by RJ Elliot
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Sunday, 07 October 2007 |
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I went 7-7 last week. That puts me at 37-25 for the season. For a comparison, check out the "experts" over at ESPN.
Here are my picks for the NFL's Week Five:
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 7TH, 2007
Miami (0-4) at Houston (2-2) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line: Houston by 5½) The Dolphins were embarrassed at home by Oakland last week, 35-17. Their defense allowed 299 rushing yards, and their top receiver was Ronnie Brown, a running back. Miami has allowed 119 points through four games, third most in the NFL. The Texans got surprised by Atlanta last week, losing 26-16. QB Matt Schaub is having a fine year, with a 101.2 passer rating and 74% completion percentage. Injured RB Ahman Green may be able to start against the Dolphins. If he can't, RB Ron Dayne will start in his place for the second week in a row. Either way, expect the Texans to gain a lot of yards on the ground against a porous Miami run defense.
RJ's Pick - TEXANS BY 3
Atlanta (1-3) at Tennessee (2-1) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line: Tennessee by 8)
The Falcons beat Houston last week, earning their first win of the season. QB Joey Harrington has looked great the last two games, and hasn't thrown a pick since Week One. Unfortunately, Atlanta's running game is anemic this year, after leading the NFL in rushing the past three seasons. Tennessee had a Bye in Week Four. Expect a close game.
RJ's Pick - TITANS BY 4
Jacksonville (2-1) at Kansas City (2-2) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line: Jacksonville by 2½)
Jacksonville had a Bye last week. They have given up the fewest points of any team in the league, although they've played one less game than most other teams. Jaguars starting offensive lineman Khalif Barnes, who was already on probation for a DUI earlier in the year, has been cited for careless driving and leaving the scene of an accident after an incident Saturday morning. Apparently he "fell asleep" while driving, drove through someone's yard, crashed into a tree, and then fled before officers arrived. I haven't seen judgment that bad since the Chargers decided to replace Marty Schottenheimer with Norv Turner. [Rim Shot!] Speaking of the Chargers, Kansas City beat them 30-16 last week, in San Diego. RB Larry Johnson finally rushed for 100 yards in a game. The Chiefs defense has given up just 26 points in the last two games. Hmmm. A two-game winning streak, a resurgent Larry Johnson, a tie for first place in the AFC West, and seven of their remaining twelve games to be played at Arrowhead. Could the Chiefs make the playoffs again this year? Anything's possible. Anything, that is, except either of these teams scoring more than two offensive touchdowns in this matchup of superior defenses.
RJ's Pick - CHIEFS BY 1
New York Jets (1-3) at New York Giants (2-2) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line: New York Giants by 3)
The Jets lost to the hapless Bills in Week Four. So far this season, their defense has managed a total of three sacks. They'll need a better pass rush than that against Eli Manning and the Giants. Speaking of sacks, the Giants recorded twelve of them against the Eagles last week, in a 16-3 victory on SNF. Expect another big game from WR Plaxico Burress. Anyway, no matter what, you simply can't go against the home team in this one. (Get it?)
RJ's Pick - GIANTS BY 6
Carolina (2-2) at New Orleans (0-3) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line: New Orleans by 3)
Carolina lost at home to Tampa Bay last week, 20-7. The status of QB Jake Delhomme's injury is up in the air right now. On the one hand, there is a slim chance he could start this week against New Orleans. But there's also a possibility that he will require season-ending surgery. Most likely he will be out for a least a few more weeks. And that's bad news, because this team is just not as good with David Carr starting under center. The Saints had a Bye last week. RB Deuce McAllister is out for the rest of the season, which means more carries for (and more pressure on) Reggie Bush. Despite having played one less game than most other NFL teams through four weeks, the Saints are tied for fifth in most points allowed. I don't really understand why New Orleans is the favorite here. Even David Carr should look like an All-Pro against the Saints defense.
RJ's Pick - PANTHERS BY 5
Arizona (2-2) at St. Louis (0-4) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line: Arizona by 3)
Arizona shocked Pittsburgh last week, winning 21-14 against the previously unbeaten Steelers. Arizona's two wins have been by a total of ten points, and their two losses have been by a total of six points. Point is, win or lose, they play close games. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt is looking like a genius by having Matt Leinart and Kurt Warner share QB duties. WR Anquan Boldin may not be able to play this Sunday against the Rams. St. Louis is having a horribly disappointing year. Their points scored/points allowed differential is -64, second worst in the league. They've scored a total of 10 points the last two weeks, and their one touchdown was on a punt return. If Marc Bulger continues to struggle, he will likely lose his starting quarterback job to Gus Frerotte. [UPDATE: Looks like he already did...] But the Rams could bring in the reanimated corpse of Norm Van Brocklin at QB, and it still wouldn't matter at this point. The real problem lies with an offensive line that's in roughly the same condition as Joe Theismann's leg, right after the sack.
RJ's Pick - CARDINALS BY 6
Cleveland (2-2) at New England (4-0) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line: New England by 16½)
Cleveland beat Baltimore last week, 27-13. QB Derek Anderson continues to surprise and impress. But for an example of something truly impressive, check out the Patriots. In their four games, they have scored 38, 38, 38, and 34 points, while giving up just 14, 14, 7, and 13. They've scored the second-most points in the NFL, and given up the third-fewest (excluding teams that have only played three games so far). You'd be a fool to pick against this team at home, against the Browns or anybody else.
RJ's Pick - PATRIOTS BY 24
Seattle (3-1) at Pittsburgh (3-1) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line: Pittsburgh by 6)
This could be the matchup of the week. Seattle buried San Francisco last week, 23-3. RB Shaun Alexander is averaging about 88 yards per game this season. He'll have to step up his performance a bit as the season progresses if the Seahawks want to make a serious run at the Super Bowl. The Steelers lost last week at Arizona, suffering their first defeat of the year. Among teams that have played four games, Pittsburgh has given up the second-fewest points in the league. WR Hines Ward is unlikely to play this week due to injury. I expect a close game. How well Steelers RB Willie Parker plays will likely determine the outcome of this contest.
RJ's Pick - SEAHAWKS BY 2
Detroit (3-1) at Washington (2-1) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line: Washington by 3½)
The Lions beat the Bears last week, 37-27. They broke an NFL record by scoring 34 points in the 4th quarter. Jon Kitna leads the NFL in passing yards and has a 105.6 quarterback rating. Rookie WR Calvin Johnson is expected to play this Sunday after sitting out last week with a severely bruised lower back. This week they travel to Washington, where they have never won. That's right, never. Not once in franchise history have the Lions beaten the Redskins on the road. (And they've had 20 tries.) The Redskins had a Bye last week. WR Santana Moss is unlikely to play due to a strained groin, but Washington just signed veteran WR Keenan McCardell on Monday as a possible replacement. RB Clinton Portis is still hobbled by a knee injury, but is expected to play. QB Jason Campbell has a miserable 69.6 passer rating and 52.9% completion percentage. As long as Detroit's defense doesn't forget to show up, as they did against the Eagles in Week Three, the Lions should finally earn their first road victory against the Redskins.
RJ's Pick - LIONS BY 2
Tampa Bay (3-1) at Indianapolis (4-0) - 4:05 PM (Sheridan's Line: Indianapolis by 10)
Tampa Bay beat Carolina last week, 20-7. They've given up a total of just 10 points the past two weeks, and have allowed the fewest points in the NFC. RB Cadillac Williams is out for the season, as is offensive lineman Luke Petitgout. The Colts beat Denver last week, 38-20. They have now won nine games in a row, going back to last year. Indianapolis is third in the league in points scored, but their defense is giving up 18.5 points per game. Both RB Joseph Addai and WR Marvin Harrison are likely to miss this Sunday's game due to injury. I expect a much closer game than the oddsmakers do.
RJ's Pick - COLTS BY 4
San Diego (1-3) at Denver (2-2) - 4:15 PM (Sheridan's Line: Denver by 1½)
San Diego lost at home to the Chiefs last week, their third straight defeat. But at least RB LaDainian Tomlinson finally broke the 100-yards rushing barrier. The Broncos lost to the Colts in Week Four, 38-20. They've allowed an average of over 180 yards rushing per game so far this season. WR Javon Walker is likely to sit out this Sunday's game due to a knee injury. Also, RB Travis Henry and RB Mike Bell are both banged up. I predict a big game from Tomlinson and a much-needed win for the Chargers.
RJ's Pick - CHARGERS BY 3
Baltimore (2-2) at San Francisco (2-2) - 4:15 PM (Sheridan's Line: Baltimore by 3½)
The Ravens got whipped by the Browns last week, 27-13. Their once-fearsome defense has allowed 22.5 points per game so far this year. Hobbled and under-performing QB Steve McNair is expected to start, but Kyle Boller could always make an appearance. The 49ers were embarrassed in front of their home crowd last week, losing to the Seahawks 23-3. That's their second loss in a row, after winning a pair of close contests to start the season. QB Alex Smith has a shoulder injury, so Trent Dilfer will be starting under center this week. He'll have his work cut out for him, as the 49ers rank last in the NFL in passing yards and in total yards. Don't expect much scoring in this one.
RJ's Pick - SAN FRANCISCO BY 1
Chicago (1-3) at Green Bay (4-0) - 8:15 PM (Sheridan's Line: Green Bay by 3½)
Chicago blew a 4th quarter lead and lost to the Lions last week, 37-27. QB Brian Griese had no more success than benched QB Rex Grossman, throwing 3 INTs in the loss. So far this year, the Bears have allowed 95 points, or 23.75 per game. They've scored just four offensive touchdowns. Weak. The Packers won again last week, 23-16 in Minnesota. Despite an almost nonexistent running game, Green Bay is third in the NFC in points scored. And Packers fans can thank Brett Favre's ageless arm for that. With 8 TDs, only 2 INTs, over 1200 yards passing, and a 97.3 QB rating, Brett Favre is making everyone who encouraged him to retire over the last couple of years (myself included) look like buffoons. Brett Favre has found the fabled fountain of youth, and while we don't yet have all the details, apparently it involves a giant block of cheese worn as a chapeau.
RJ's Pick - PACKERS BY 5
MONDAY, OCTOBER 8TH, 2007
Dallas (4-0) at Buffalo (1-3) - 8:30 PM (Sheridan's Line: Dallas by 10)
Dallas beat up on poor St. Louis last week, 35-7. The Cowboys have scored more points than any other team in the NFL. (Yes, including New England and Indianapolis.) The Bills got their first win of the season last week against the Jets. That's good enough for second place in the AFC East, where only the Patriots are better than abysmal. The Bills defense is all banged up, and their offense has scored the fewest points in the AFC. Trent Edwards will be filling in at QB for the injured J. P. Losman once again. I expect a brutal beating here.
RJ's Pick - COWBOYS BY 18
[Bye Week Teams: Cincinnati (1-3), Oakland (2-2), Minnesota (1-3), Philadelphia (1-3)]
Recap
RJ's Week Three Picks: Texans, Titans, Chiefs, Giants, Panthers, Cardinals, Patriots, Seahawks, Lions, Colts, Chargers, 49ers, Packers, Cowboys
- I picked eight Home teams and six Away teams
- I picked eight Favorites and six Underdogs
(If you're interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan's Odds and ESPN's NFL "Expert" Picks.)
2007 Weekly Results
Week One - 11-5 Week Two - 9-7 Week Three - 10-6 Week Four - 7-7 | | No comments for this item |
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RJ's NFL Picks, Week Four |
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Written by RJ Elliot
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Friday, 28 September 2007 |
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I went 10-6 last week. That puts me at 30-18 for the season. For a comparison, check out the "experts" over at ESPN.
Here are my picks for the NFL's Week Four:
Sunday, September 30th, 2007
Green Bay (3-0) at Minnesota (1-2) *Metrodome* - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's line: Green Bay by 2)
Of the five remaining unbeaten teams, the Packers are the biggest surprise. They haven't had an easy schedule either, beating the Chargers, the Eagles, and the Giants on the road. Brett Favre looks like he has another five seasons in him. The Packers major weak spot is their unreliable running game. Minnesota has a strong ground attack and a solid defense, but their passing game is laughable. However, the Vikings almost always play tough at home.
RJ's Pick: Packers by 4
Oakland (1-2) at Miami (0-3) *Dolphin Stadium* - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's line: Miami by 4)
Oakland was very lucky to get a win last week against Cleveland. The Raiders blocked a last-second field goal attempt by Browns kicker Phil Dawson. Dawson had actually made the field goal on the previous play, but it didn't count because Oakland called a timeout just milliseconds before the snap. Miami nearly beat the Jets on the road in Week Three, thanks largely to a great game by RB Ronnie Brown. But in the end, they still lost, and therefore remain winless. The Dolphins offense has shown some signs of life early this season, and I think this is the game where they put it all together for the win.
RJ's Pick: Dolphins by 2
New York Jets (1-2) at Buffalo (0-3) *Ralph Wilson Stadium* - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's line: Jets by 4½)
The Bills are just having an awful season. Injuries, an anemic passing game, and a tough early schedule have all contributed to their winless record. The Jets have a healthy Chad Pennington at QB now, so they should be able to get to .500 with a win on the road.
RJ's Pick: Jets by 7
Houston (2-1) at Atlanta (0-3) *Georgia Dome* - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's line: Houston by 3)
Houston is surprisingly good this year, while the Falcons are predictably awful. It's not a good sign when Joey Harrington puts up Peyton Manning-type numbers, and his team still loses, as happened in Week Three.
RJ's Pick: Texans by 6
Chicago (1-2) at Detroit (2-1) *Ford Field* - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's line: Chicago by 3)
The Bears were spanked at home by Dallas on SNF last week. Their offense was anemic, but that's expected with Rex Grossman at QB. What was surprising, however, was that their defense couldn't stop either the run or the pass. Detroit was utterly destroyed by Philadelphia last week, 56-21. The Lions defense was embarrassing to watch, as Eagles receivers were left wide open and RB Brian Westbrook seemed to break at least five tackles every time he had the ball. QB Jon Kitna put up great numbers in a losing cause. I believe the Lions can score on anybody this season with their high-powered passing attack, so they should be able to put some points on the board in this one (even if rookie WR Calvin Johnson cannot play due to a bruised lower back). Grossman has been benched in favor of Brian Griese, which should give the Bears offense a boost. This one could go either way.
RJ's Pick: Lions by 2
Baltimore (2-1) at Cleveland (1-2) *Cleveland Browns Stadium* - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's line: Baltimore by 4½)
Baltimore is has been very mediocre so far this season. They've lost to the 1-2 Bengals, and they've barely beaten the 1-2 Jets and the 1-2 Cardinals. Meanwhile, since a pathetic performance in Week One, the Browns have put 51 points up in a win against the Bengals and nearly beat the Raiders on the road. I'm thinking upset in this one.
RJ's Pick: Browns by 1
Saint Louis (0-3) at Dallas (3-0) *Texas Stadium* - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's line: Dallas by 11½)
The Rams have a poor defense and a crippled offensive line. The Cowboys have the highest-scoring offense in the NFL. Need I say any more?
RJ's Pick: Dallas by 21
Tampa Bay (2-1) at Carolina (2-1) *Bank of America Stadium* - 4:05 PM (Sheridan's line: No Line)
This is a tough game to predict. Tampa Bay has an over-performing defense, and Jeff Garcia has shown himself to be capable at QB. But it's always tough to pick against Jake Delhomme-Steve Smith combination unless it's against an elite opponent (which Tampa Bay isn't). When uncertain, it's usually wise to pick the home team.
RJ's Pick: Carolina by 3
Seattle (2-1) at San Francisco (2-1) *Monster Park* - 4:05 PM (Sheridan's line: Seattle by 2)
San Francisco isn't as good as their 2-1 record would seem to indicate. Their two wins came from barely beating the Cardinals and barely beating the Rams. Last week, they were shredded by Pittsburgh. The 49ers could easily be 0-3 right now. Meanwhile, the Seahawks would be 3-0, except for a late-fourth quarter collapse in Arizona back in Week Two. This game should be kept close, however, because it's at Monster Park.
RJ's Pick: Seattle by 4
Kansas City (1-2) at San Diego (1-2) *Qualcomm Stadium* - 4:15 PM (Sheridan's line: San Diego by 12)
San Diego has been unimpressive so far this year, as has their star RB LaDainian Tomlinson. He is averaging just 2.3 yards per carry, and has as many passing TDs this season as rushing TDs (1). However, the Chargers should improve as the season wears on. Kansas City, meanwhile, is just thoroughly bad. Their defense isn't horrible, but their offense certainly is. San Diego is going to win this game, but I'm not sure if it will be a low-scoring game with a small margin of victory, or a total blowout. That's the only tough part about making this pick.
RJ's Pick: San Diego by 17
Pittsburgh (3-0) at Arizona (1-2) *University of Phoenix Stadium* - 4:15 PM (Sheridan's line: Pittsburgh by 6)
This game should be a rout, since the Steelers are playing as good as anybody right now (with the possible exception of the Patriots). But Kurt Warner is in at QB for the Cardinals, and he looked very impressive last week taking over for Matt Leinart. I don't expect an upset, but Warner could keep it close.
RJ's Pick: Steelers by 3
Denver (2-1) at Indianapolis (3-0) *RCA Dome* - 4:15 PM (Sheridan's line: Indianapolis by 9½)
Denver nearly lost to the hapless Bills in Week One, then nearly lost to the Raiders in Week Two. Last week, they got whipped at home by the Jaguars, and their running game was completely shut down. Indianapolis looked beatable the last two weeks, but both were away games. They aren't going to lose at home this week (or perhaps all season).
RJ's Pick: Colts by 13
Philadelphia (1-2) at New York Giants (1-2) *Giants Stadium* - 8:15 PM (Sheridan's line: Philadelphia by 3)
The Giants defense looked horrible all season - until the second half of last week's game against Washington. The Eagles offense looked horrible all season - until the entire-freakin'-game against the Lions last week. So, there are two important questions surrounding this game. 1) Which Giants defensive unit will show up? 2) Which Eagles offensive unit will show up? I guess I'll go with the Eagles, because you just know Brian Westbrook will put in a solid performance no matter what.
RJ's Pick: Eagles by 1
Monday, October 1st, 2007
New England (3-0) at Cincinnati (1-2) *Paul Brown Stadium* - 8:30 PM (Sheridan's line: New England by 7½)
New England will score 38 points again this week, and that may be by the second quarter. I'm not a betting man, and I do not encourage using my picks for betting purposes (although I did quite well against the spread last week...), but if I was, and if I did, I would happily place a double sawbuck on the Patriots, and encourage others to do the same.
RJ's Pick: Patriots by 20
[Bye Week Teams: Tennessee (2-1), New Orleans (0-3), Washington (2-1), Jacksonville (2-1)]
Recap
RJ's Week Three Picks:
- I picked seven Home teams and seven Away teams
- I picked eleven Favorites and two Underdogs (one game had No Line)
(If you're interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan's Odds and ESPN's NFL "Expert" Picks.)
2007 Weekly Results
Week One - 11-5
Week Two - 9-7
Week Three - 10-6
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RJ's NFL Picks, Week Three |
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Written by RJ Elliot
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Friday, 28 September 2007 |
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I went 9-7 last week. For a comparison, check out the "experts" over at ESPN.
Here are my picks for the NFL's Week Three:
*** Sunday, September 23rd, 2007 ***
Detroit (2-0) at Philadelphia (0-2) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line - Eagles by 6½)
It's rare that you see a winless team favored by nearly a touchdown over an undefeated team in Week Three. As long as QB Jon Kitna doesn't get knocked out of the game (he suffered a mild concussion last week against the Vikings), Detroit should be able to put 20+ points on the board. The Lions defense will have problems with RB Brian Westbrook, but he is Philadelphia's only offensive weapon. If Eagles QB Donovan McNabb continues to struggle, this one will be an upset.
RJ's Pick: Detroit by 3
Miami (0-2) at New York Jets (0-2) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line - Jets by 3)
Both teams have struggled to put points on the board so far this season. Dolphins QB Trent Green threw four picks last week against Dallas. Jets QB Chad Pennington was injured and did not play in Week Two, but is probably going to start this week against Miami. This one should be close, but with the game being played at Giants Stadium and Pennington presumably healthy again, you gotta go with the Jets.
RJ's Pick: Jets by 4
Buffalo (0-2) at New England (2-0) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line - Patriots by 16½)
New England is already running away with the AFC East. Meanwhile, the Bills are all banged up and are averaging a pathetic 8.5 points per game. There is no question that the Patriots should win this one easily.
RJ's Pick: Patriots by 24 (New England 38, Buffalo 14)
Arizona (1-1) at Baltimore (1-1) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line - Baltimore by 7½)
Weird fact: Both teams have scored exactly 40 points and allowed exactly 40 points. For Baltimore, QB Steve McNair may return to the starting lineup this week. But if not, Kyle Boller is a more than capable backup. Arizona RB Edgerrin James is going to need a big game in order for the Cardinals to have a chance. I predict Baltimore's defense stops James and pressures QB Matt Leinart all game long.
RJ's Pick: Ravens by 9
Saint Louis (0-2) at Tampa Bay (1-1) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line - Tampa Bay by 3½)
The conventional NFL wisdom is that the Rams have a great offense but a poor defense. But that's not entirely true. They do have a sub-par defense, but their offense isn't nearly as good as advertised. The offensive line has suffered numerous injuries, and consequently RB Steven Jackson is underperforming. As a result, the offense has become largely one-dimensional by relying too much on the passing attack. And while QB Marc Bulger and WRs Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt are certainly capable playmakers, they can't win games all by themselves. The Buccaneers offense isn't particularly good (WR Joey Galloway excepted), but the defense is pretty solid, so Tampa Bay should be able to handle the Rams at home.
RJ's Pick: Tampa Bay by 2
San Francisco (2-0) at Pittsburgh (2-0) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line - Steelers by 8½)
The Steelers are 2-0 because they are a very good team. The 49ers are 2-0 because they've been lucky to barely beat weak opponents. I expect a bloodbath at Heinz Field.
RJ's Pick: Steelers by 18
Indianapolis (2-0) at Houston (2-0) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line - Colts by 6)
The Colts struggled a bit last week against Tennessee, but they still got the win. QB Peyton Manning is averaging exactly 300 passing yards per game, and RB Joseph Addai is averaging 99.5 rushing yards per game. Texans QB Matt Schaub has been a very pleasant surprise, with a quarterback rating of 111.4. This should be a high-scoring matchup, and an upset isn't out of the question, especially with Houston playing at home. However, I'll go with the Colts.
RJ's Pick: Indianapolis by 4
San Diego (1-1) at Green Bay (2-0) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line - San Diego by 4½)
I just don't know about San Diego this year. They didn't play very well against the Bears in Week One, although they got the win. Then they were humiliated by New England in Week Two (on SNF to boot). QB Philip Rivers did not look impressive in either game, and RB LaDainian Tomlinson has a total of just 68 rushing yards. Of course, you could say that both games were against good defensive teams, but that's also true this week against Green Bay. The Packers have allowed just 26 points through two games. And while they don't have much of a running game, QB Brett Favre is playing like he's ten years younger. I still think the Chargers will make the playoffs, but I do believe they'll slip below .500 this week.
RJ's Pick: Green Bay by 3
Minnesota (1-1) at Kansas City (0-2) - 1:00 PM (Sheridan's Line - Kansas City by 2½)
I truly do not understand the line on this one. Sure, Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson is pretty much the laughingstock of the league, but he's "injured" and so either Kelly Holcomb or Brooks Bollinger will start in his place (and either one would be an improvement). And sure, the Chiefs are at home, but the "Arrowhead advantage" ain't what it used to be. The fact of the matter is, the Vikings have a decent running game and a solid defense. What do the Chiefs have? QB Damon Huard and his 66.5 quarterback rating? RB Larry Johnson and his 3.8 yards per carry and zero TDs? TE Tony Gonzalez and his 71 receiving yards? The coaching wizardry of Herm Edwards and his career 50-54 record as a head coach? I'm not saying the Vikings are guaranteed to win this game or anything, but it certainly seems like the most likely outcome to me.
RJ's Pick: Minnesota by 5
Cleveland (1-1) at Oakland (0-2) - 4:05 PM (Sheridan's Line - Oakland by 3)
Oakland played Denver close last week, on the road, but ultimately lost 23-20. RB LaMont Jordan has been outstanding so far this season, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Unfortunately for Oakland, their defense hasn't been as good as everyone expected. They'll need to put in an outstanding defensive performance this week if they hope to stop the Cleveland Browns offensive juggernaut (the previous sentence was meant to be only mildly sarcastic). The Browns won a wild one last week against the Bengals, by a score of 51-45. QB Derek Anderson threw for 5 TDs in only his fourth career NFL start. RB Jamal Lewis rushed for 216 yards and a TD. This should be another high-scoring affair, with close to 200 yards on the ground for both teams.
RJ's Pick: Browns by 1
Jacksonville (1-1) at Denver (2-0) - 4:05 PM (Sheridan's Line - Denver by 3)
Denver has been very lucky so far this season. They won in Buffalo in Week One on a last-second field goal. Then they beat the Raiders in Week Two on an overtime field goal. They really have to hope kicker Jason Elam stays healthy. Jacksonville won a low-scoring contest against Atlanta last week, after losing a low-scoring contest against Tennessee in Week One. So, I think it's reasonable to predict a low-scoring game that Denver wins with a field goal as time expires.
RJ's Pick: Denver by 2
Cincinnati (1-1) at Seattle (1-1) - 4:05 PM (Sheridan's Line - Seattle by 3½)
Cincinnati's defense absolutely fell apart last week, after a praiseworthy performance against Baltimore in Week One. To give you an idea of just how bad they were defensively last Sunday, QB Carson Palmer threw for 401 yards and six TDs, and yet they still lost. Seattle RB Shaun Alexander must be licking his chops in expectation of a big game this Sunday. The Seahawks defense is good, and they'll need to be if they have any hope of containing the Bengals offense (third highest scoring in the NFL). This one is a tough call, because it's uncertain how the Bengals defensive unit will bounce back from last week's embarrassment. I suspect their professional and personal pride will lead them to a better performance against the Seattle.
RJ's Pick: Bengals by 1
New York Giants (0-2) at Washington (2-0) - 4:15 PM (Sheridan's Line - Redskins by 3½)
It's difficult to imagine the Redskins starting this season out 3-0 after going 5-11 in 2006. And their offense certainly leaves much to be desired. But their defense has allowed only 25 points, third-least in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Giants defense just can't stop anybody right now. They've allowed more points than any other team (yes, more than the Bengals or the Browns). Offensively, they're doing fine. QB Eli Manning has a 97.5 quarterback rating, WR Plaxico Burress is looking to have a career year, and RB Derrick Ward is averaging 89.5 yards per game. But none of that is going to matter if their defense doesn't pull itself together, and soon. As long as Redskins QB Jason Campbell doesn't throw too many picks, Washington should remain unbeaten.
RJ's Pick: Washington by 6
Carolina (1-1) at Atlanta (0-2) - 4:15 PM (Sheridan's Line - Carolina by 4)
Carolina is a mediocre team, but they do have some advantages. First of all, they've got Steve Smith. Second, they play in the weakest division in the NFL (with the possible exception of the AFC East), which means they probably only need to go 9-7 or 10-6 to win their division and make the playoffs. And third, they've got Steve Smith. Atlanta, on the other hand, is painfully bad. They've managed a total of 10 points coming into Week Three, fewest in the league (yes, less than Kansas City or Buffalo). QB Joey Harrington has been sacked 13 times already, and has 2 INTs with zero TDs. This week is their home opener, and it's going to be ugly. The boo birds should be out in force by halftime.
RJ's Pick: Carolina by 13
Dallas (2-0) at Chicago (1-1) - 8:15 PM (Sheridan's Line - Bears by 3)
This is a big game for both teams, but especially for Chicago. The defending NFC champs do not want to fall to 1-2, with another big game coming up in Week Four at division rival Detroit. QB Rex Grossman is simply going to have to step up and start playing better. He has one TD and three INTs through two games, which just isn't going to cut it. A 55.1 quarterback rating isn't going to take his team very deep into the playoffs, assuming they even make the postseason with that kind of play from the quarterback position. It's never a good sign when your main offensive threat is your kickoff/punt returner. All that being said, they still have a terrific defense that is capable of winning games pretty much by itself. As for Dallas, they have scored more points than any other team in the league (the only teams that are close are the Bengals and the Patriots). QB Tony Romo has a stratospheric 119.3 quarterback rating. Their defense is sub-par, however. The key question for this game is whether the Bears defense can stop the Cowboys offense (because we know the Bears offense will mostly stop itself). And I don't think they can.
RJ's Pick: Dallas by 5
*** Monday, September 24th, 2007 ***
Tennessee (1-1) at New Orleans (0-2) - 8:30 PM (Sheridan's Line - Saints by 4½)
I know I've been a little upset-happy this week, but I'm going to pick another one here. New Orleans is simply not the same team they were last year. They've given up the second-most points in the NFC while scoring the third-fewest. QB Drew Brees has 3 INTs and only 1 TD. Meanwhile, the Titans beat Jacksonville on the road and nearly came back against the Colts last week. Their defense has been surprisingly solid. I realize this is the Saints home opener, and it's on MNF, but I'm still gonna go with the 'dog.
RJ's Pick: Titans by 6
Recap
RJ's Week Three Picks: Lions, Jets, Pats, Ravens, Bucs, Steelers, Colts, Packers, Vikes, Browns, Broncos, Bengals, Redskins, Panthers, Cowboys, Titans
- I picked eight home teams and eight away teams
- I picked nine favorites and seven underdogs
(If you're interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan's Odds and ESPN's NFL "Expert" Picks.)
2007 Weekly Results
Week One - 11-5
Week Two - 9-7 | | No comments for this item |
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