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Another year....another group of college QBs pining for the NFL. Of course, looking for a stud fantasy NFL QB fresh from the college ranks is like Pamela Anderson (right, Icon SMI) winning an Oscar...it ain't gonna happen.
Sure, some of the 2008 QB draftees will become serviceable signal callers....even become a star. However, do not look for it in their rookie season. Except for Peyton Manning in his rookie season in 1998, the rookie QB crop is not one of immediate impact. Even Manning's initial season was wrought with interceptions.
There are three main reasons why rookie QBs have little or no impact (fantasy or otherwise) their first seasons:
- Many are not ready for the NFL. The NFL playbook is much larger than the average college playbook.....think a New York City phonebook compared to a Gun Gulch, Wyoming phonebook.
- Even if the incoming rookie QB has the tools to start his first season....it will more likely be on a team that stinks. You think the New England Patriots are looking for a rookie QB? Right, and I have some video tapes for sale.
- In the rare exception that a good team starts playing a rookie QB, that team will do everything possible to get the QB to hand off to a running back...or wide receiver....punter...etc. They really called former Pittsburgh Steelers RB Jerome Bettis "The Bus" because he delivered an easy 2004 rookie season for Ben Roethlisberger.
But, do not fret! We here at Fantasy College Blitz will still provide analysis of the incoming crop of QBs. This info will come in handy in future seasons for the fantasy player, if not right now.
1. Matt Ryan - Boston College: Expect Ryan (right, ICON SMI) to go early in the draft...one of the first five overall picks. Ryan has the physical tools and the intangibles (the comeback win at Virginia Tech stands out) that would put him as a starter on a number of good teams.
Alas, poor Matt will probably end up in Atlanta, where he will have to lead a rebuilding team. Just tell Birds owner Arthur Blank "you like dogs", Matt. Ryan is a late fantasy consideration for 2008.
2. Brian Brohm - Louisville: He stayed one season too long, as Brohm would have been in higher demand after 2006 instead of 2007. Louisville had many problems in 2007, but Brohm was not the one who failed to defend or dropped passes. Brohm's older brother, Jeff (a former pro QB), has worked with the younger Brohm while at Louisville, and, you can be sure that experience has been passed down. Wait for fantasy free agency in 2008 before snagging Brohm.
3. Andre Woodson - Kentucky: Not the fave of many draftniks, but Woodson has all the physical tools to play in the NFL, sans quick feet. Nagging inuries in workouts have hindered Woodson, but, he has the ability to play in season one. Some also discount Woodson because Kentucky was blessed with good WRs....but those same WRs struggled in 2005 along with Woodson (his freshman season). Another "wait for free agency" consideration.
4. Chad Henne - Michigan: Blessed with the physical tools, but, one thing I noticed about Henne is that the Michigan offense struggled when its other skilled position players were out of games, especially RB Mike Hart. Henne, at times last season, struggled even when Hart was playing. Best wait for 2009 to think about Henne.
5. Colt Brennan - Hawaii: Draftniks everywhere have downgraded Brennan because of one bad game....the 2008 Sugar Bowl vs Georgia. Anyone familiar with Hawaii football the past few seasons knows that Brennan at times did not get protection from his OL, leading to numerous bruises, beatings, and injuries. Imagine what he could do behind a decent O-Line. Hold off on 2008 with Brennan.
6. Paul Smith - Tulsa: Smith is smallish (6-1) but knows how to move a team down the field. With a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator, and a new group of starting WRs...Smith put up his biggest numbers during the 2007 season. Think of a more mobile Drew Brees when thinking about this Tulsa QB. Yes he is my "sleeper", but, still, 2008 is not the year to draft him.
7. John Flacco - Delaware: Big, strong-armed QB who led Delaware to the NCAA FCS championship game this past season. The former Pittsburgh signee is huge and has a rocket arm....but is not very mobile. Flacco's future is more promising....however no fantasy consideration this year.
8. Josh Johnson - San Diego: The Toreros, not the Chargers, is where Johnson played ball last season. Granted, his TD-INT ratio (43-1) in 2007 may be due to the oppoents faced by FCS-Non-scholarship USD...still, throwing only 1 INT for 11 games means few dumb mistakes...no matter what level. Johnson has a future, but not much of a present, so hold off on him this year.
9. Dennis Dixon - Oregon: His knee injury cost him a Heisman, and some spots in the draft. Dixon's recovery will be key in a couple of years from now....especially if he lands on a good team looking for that "QB of the future". Hold off on Dixon in 2008.
10. John David Booty - USC: Unlike Tulsa's Smith, Booty did not improve his stats in 2007 with a new group of starting WRs. Granted, Booty missed some games in 2007 due to injuries....but his numbers were down per game in 2007 compared to 2006. Booty will need a few years before even being considered on a fantasy team.
11. Erik Ainge - Tennessee: Ainge developed in 2006 when David Cutcliffe returned as the offensive coordinator for the Vols. He became an established star QB in the 2006 and 2007 seasons, but is in reality a long shot to make a NFL roster. Not a real fantasy consideration.
12. Matt Flynn - LSU: We are running out of real NFL worthy QBs now....but Flynn is the QB who won the national championship this past season. His skills, though, are not on par with his other draftee counterparts. Enjoy the trophy, Matt.
Fantasy College Blitz
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