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RJ's NFL Picks - Week 6
Written by RJ Elliot   
Monday, 15 October 2007
I went 9-5 last week. That puts me at 46-30 for the season. For a comparison, check out the "experts" over at ESPN.

Here are my picks for the NFL's Week Six:

Sunday, October 14th, 2007

Cincinnati (1-3) at Kansas City (2-3) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Bengals by 3)

Cincinnati had a bye last week. RB Rudi Johnson still may not be healed enough to play this week, however. The Bengals have given up 129 points, seventh most in the NFL despite having played one game less than most of the league. The Chiefs lost at home to Jacksonville in Week Five. QB Damon Huard was injured in the 4th quarter of that game, but head coach Herm "Don't Call Me Herman" Edwards says he's fine to start this week. Kansas City's 63 points scored after five games is the worst in the AFC. RB Larry Johnson should have a big game, giving the Chiefs a narrow edge.

RJ's Pick - KANSAS CITY BY 1

Houston (3-2) at Jacksonville (3-1) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Jaguars by 6½)

Houston barely won at home against the hapless Dolphins last week; a last-second 57-yard field goal provided the margin of victory. RB Ahman Green should be back in the lineup this week. Jacksonville whipped Kansas City last week, 17-7, in a game that would have been a shutout if not for a meaningless last-second touchdown by the Chiefs. QB David Garrard has 4 TDs and 0 INTs through four games, and a quarterback rating of 105.4. The Jaguars have given up just 41 points, fewest in the NFL. I don't see a lot of points being scored in this one.

RJ's Pick - JACKSONVILLE BY 4

Miami (0-5) at Cleveland (2-3) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Browns by 5)

The Dolphins lost last week to Houston. They also lost QB Trent Green to injury, when he attempted to block a 305-pound defensive tackle with his head. It is unsure when the 37-year old Green will return, if ever. Cleo Lemon will start this week for Miami, although John Beck could possibly make an appearance if/when Lemon struggles. Cleveland got beat by the Patriots last week, as everyone expected they would. Both WR Joe Jurevicius and RB Jamal Lewis might miss this week's game due to injury, but the Browns should win anyway.

RJ's Pick - CLEVELAND by 9

Minnesota (1-3) at Chicago (2-3) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Bears by 5)

The Vikings had a bye last week. It is unknown whether it will be Tarvaris Jackson or Kelly Holcomb starting at QB this week. The Bears beat the Packers in Green Bay last week on SNF. QB Brian Griese looked decent, throwing for 214 yards, 2 TDs, and only 1 INT. But the running game averaged less than three yards per carry. This should be another low-scoring contest.

RJ's Pick - CHICAGO BY 3

Philadelphia (1-3) at New York Jets (1-4) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Eagles by 3)

The Philadelphia Phillies Eagles took last week off. (Heh.) RB Brian Westbrook should be back in action this week. This will be the second game in row the Eagles have played at "The Meadowlands" (they played, and lost to, the Giants in Week Four). The Jets lost their last game to the Giants as well, 35-24 in Week Five. QB Chad Pennington has thrown 5 INTs in the last two weeks, and could be replaced by Kellen Clemens unless his performance improves soon. Like, say, by halftime this Sunday. This is a tough game to predict, because the Eagles are capable of scoring anywhere from 3 to 56 points.

RJ's Pick - PHILADELPHIA BY 5

St. Louis (0-5) at Baltimore (3-2) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Ravens by 9½)

The Rams lost at home to the Cardinals last week. QB Gus Frerotte did not play particularly well starting for the injured Marc Bulger. Then again, Marc Bulger hadn't been playing very well either. RB Steven Jackson will miss his third consecutive game this week, WR Isaac Bruce will miss his second, and return specialist Dante' Hall is likely out for at least two games due to an ankle injury he suffered last week. Oh, and the majority of the starters on the offensive line are still on life-support. But it's not just the offense that's a problem for Saint Louis; their defense has allowed the second most points in the NFC. This team could really use a bye week (but they'll have to wait until Week Nine for that). The Ravens edged San Francisco 9-7 in Week Five. TE Todd Heap should be able to play this Sunday after sitting out last week. This one could get ugly.

RJ's Pick - BALTIMORE BY 15

Tennessee (3-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Buccaneers by 3)

The Titans beat Atlanta last week. They've allowed just 59 points in four games, or 14.75 per game. But QB Vince Young is having an "I-scored-a-six-on-the-Wonderlic" kind of season so far, with just 3 TDs, 5 INTs, and a 67.2 quarterback rating (I mean, like all decent human beings, I feel a deep and abiding hatred towards Merril Hoge. But when a man's right, he's right). Tampa Bay got shredded by the Colts last week. RB Michael Pittman was injured in that game, and is likely to be out for at least six weeks. Unfortunately for the Bucs, I don't believe Earnest Graham is going to be an adequate replacement for Pittman. So it looks like Tampa Bay will be relying increasingly on the arm of the ageless Jeff Garcia. He's been superb so far, with 4 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 103.6 quarterback rating. I'll go with the Buccaneers in a low-scoring affair.

RJ's Pick - TAMPA BAY BY 6

Washington (3-1) at Green Bay (4-1) - 1:00 pm (Sheridan's Line: Packers by 3)

The Redskins thrashed the Lions last week, 34-3. QB Jason Campbell got to feel what it's like to be Peyton Manning for a day, playing against an awful Lions defense. Washington has given up the fewest points in the NFC. If not for a second-half collapse against the Giants in Week Three, they'd be undefeated right now. The Packers suffered their first loss of the season last week against Chicago. But you can pretty much expect to lose when you commit five turnovers and are penalized 12 times for 93 yards. They have the second-highest scoring offense in the NFC. This should be a good, close game.

RJ's Pick - GREEN BAY BY 1

Carolina (3-2) at Arizona (3-2) - 4:05 pm (Sheridan's Line: Cardinals by 4)

Carolina beat the Saints in New Orleans last week, 16-13. Bizarrely, they are 0-2 at home and 3-0 on the road so far this season. QB David Carr was injured in the second quarter last week, but was able to return and finish the game, and is likely to start this Sunday. That's a good thing, because with Jake Delhomme out for the season, a serious injury to Carr would pretty much end Carolina's playoff hopes. (Carr's backup is rookie Matt Moore from Oregon State, who, from what I understand, is about as likely to have a successful NFL career as Stephen Hawking.) Arizona beat the Rams last week, but barely, 34-31. In four of their five games, the margin of victory/defeat has been exactly three points. Matt Leinart is done for the year with a broken collarbone, which makes Kurt Warner the full-time starting QB. If the Cardinals make the playoffs for the first time since 1998, does Ken Whisenhunt automatically get named Coach of the Year?

RJ's Pick - ARIZONA BY 7

RJ'S ABSURDLY OBVIOUS GAME OF THE WEEK: New England (5-0) at Dallas (5-0) - 4:15 pm (Sheridan's Line: Patriots by 4½)

The Patriots crushed Cleveland last week. The margins of victory in their five wins have been impressive: 24, 24, 31, 21, 17. QB Tom Brady's numbers are staggering: 16 TDs, only 2 INTs, a 74.1% completion percentage, 1,383 passing yards, and a 128.7 quarterback rating. He's only been sacked 3 times all season. (Donovan McNabb, Joey Harrington, and Jon Kitna are all averaging more sacks than that per game.) Seriously, if you don't believe that New England is the best team in professional football right now, Travis Johnson must have just kneed you in the face. The Cowboys won a wild one in Buffalo last week. QB Tony Romo had probably the worst game of his career, throwing five INTs and losing a fumble, but still Dallas found a way to win. They lead the NFC in scoring by a wide margin (the next closest team, the Packers, have scored 51 fewer points). Of course, anything is possible in the NFL, but with the way the Pats are playing right now, I just can't see them losing.

RJ's Pick - NEW ENGLAND BY 8

Oakland (2-2) at San Diego (2-3) - 4:15 pm (Sheridan's Line: Chargers by 10)

The Raiders had a bye last week. They are the only division-leading team in the NFL without a winning record. Josh McCown is still all gimped out, so Daunte Culpepper will start under center again this week. RB Dominic Rhodes has completed serving his four-game suspension for being a reckless drunk violating the NFL's substance abuse policy, so this Sunday will be his first start as a Raider. It's a good thing he's able to play, because RB LaMont Jordan has missed practice with a back injury. The Chargers buried the Broncos in Denver last week, 41-3. RB LaDainian Tomlinson had 67 yards rushing and 73 yards receiving. RB Michael Turner earned 147 yards on the ground on just 10 carries, with a TD. Expect a Chargers win, but not necessarily a blowout.

RJ's Pick - SAN DIEGO BY 7

New Orleans (0-4) at Seattle (3-2) - 8:15 pm (Sheridan's Line: Seahawks by 6½)

New Orleans lost to Carolina last week. The Saints have scored the fewest points in the NFL entering Week Six. QB Drew Brees has looked horrible this year. He's thrown 9 INTs and just 1 TD, and has a quarterback rating of 57.4, which is getting uncomfortably close to Tarvaris Jackson territory. I gotta say, it still saddens me when I think back to that time, not so long ago, when the football stadium in New Orleans was full of desperate, outraged people who had just lived through an enormous catastrophe shown live on national television. But enough about the MNF game in Week Three ... Seattle got shutout by the Steelers last week, 21-0. Veteran FB Mack Strong, who was RB Shaun Alexander's lead blocker, is done for the year [make that his career] after injuring his neck in the loss. WR Deion Branch will miss the next couple games due to a sprained foot, and WR D. J. Hackett is still out. The Seahawks should win this SNF matchup, but I expect it to be fairly close because each team's offensive woes should result in a low-scoring game.

RJ's Pick - SEATTLE BY 3

Monday, October 15th, 2007

New York Giants (3-2) at Atlanta (1-4) - 8:30 pm (Sheridan's Line: Giants by 3)

The Giants outscored the Jets last week, 35-24. They've now won three in a row. WR Plaxico Burress is gimpy, but should still be effective. The Falcons lost last week to the Titans. Offensive tackle Wayne Gandy is out for the year with a torn ACL. Joey Harrington is to remain the starting QB for Atlanta in this week's game, but how much longer will it be before head coach Bobby Petrino benches him in favor of Byron Leftwich?

RJ's Pick - NEW YORK GIANTS BY 11

[Bye Week Teams: Buffalo (1-4), Denver (2-3), Detroit (3-2), Indianapolis (5-0), Pittsburgh (4-1), San Francisco (2-3)]

Recap

RJ's Week Six Picks: KC, Jax, Cleveland, Chicago, Philly, Baltimore, TB, GB, Arizona, NE, SD, Seattle, New York Giants

- I picked ten Home teams and three Away teams

- I picked twelve Favorites and one Underdog

(If you're interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan's Odds and ESPN's NFL "Expert" Picks.)

2007 Weekly Results
Week One - 11-5
Week Two - 9-7
Week Three - 10-6
Week Four - 7-7
Week Five - 9-5
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